The share of residents who feel unsafe in La Paz nearly doubled over the past year, jumping from 27.8 percent in March 2025 to 46.6 percent in March 2026, according to INEGI’s National Urban Public Security Survey (ENSU). Los Cabos saw a smaller but still notable increase, rising from 24.7 to 34.7 percent over the same 12-month period.
INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics institute, surveys more than 33,000 adults each quarter across 70 urban areas. The ENSU measures how safe people feel in their own cities, not actual crime rates. Both Baja California Sur municipalities remain well below the national average of 61.5 percent.
Los Cabos Reports More Confrontations
In Los Cabos, the share of residents who reported witnessing actual conflicts or confrontations climbed from 30.4 to 39.7 percent year over year. That 9.3 percentage point jump was the sharpest increase recorded in the survey for that category. The area covering San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas had long ranked among the safest urban zones in the country, making the shift more conspicuous.
La Paz’s quarterly numbers tell a slightly different story. The capital’s 46.6 percent reading in March 2026 was essentially flat compared to December 2025, which could indicate that perception there has leveled off after an initial spike. Still, the year-over-year leap of nearly 19 percentage points is the largest La Paz has registered in recent ENSU history.
National Context and High-Risk Locations
Across Mexico, ATMs in public spaces ranked as the single most feared location, with 70.6 percent of respondents calling them unsafe. Streets, public transit stops, and highways followed closely. All four of those settings are places that residents and visitors use regularly in both La Paz and Los Cabos.
The ENSU data arrives amid a broader security conversation in Baja California Sur. In April 2025, the U.S. Embassy issued an alert citing an “emerging security situation” in both Los Cabos and La Paz after reports of shootings and vehicle arsons. The U.S. State Department’s overall advisory for the state remains at Level 2: “Exercise Increased Caution.” Los Cabos plans to add 60 to 70 police officers per year to keep pace with rapid population growth.
Tourism industry leaders have already voiced concern about the trend. Agustín Olachea Nogueda, head of the La Paz Hotel and Tourism Association (Emprhotur), told local media that “any hint of violence, crime, or risk can cause an immediate drop in visitor arrivals.” The quarterly ENSU results were first reported by The Cabo Post.