Sea surface temperatures off Baja California Sur are running up to 5.3 degrees Celsius (9.5°F) above historical averages, raising alarm among meteorologists just weeks before the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially opens on May 15.
Jorge Garza, a meteorologist with the Mexican weather analysis group METMEX, published an analysis warning that both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California are showing “dangerously anomalous” thermal conditions. Garza described the region as a “moisture chimney” for northwestern Mexico, meaning the superheated waters are pumping enormous amounts of moisture into the atmosphere.
El Niño Driving the Extreme Warmth
The analysis attributes the record warming to an intensifying El Niño event that could rank among the strongest in recent years. El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, raises ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific. Waters above 26.6°C (80°F) are the threshold needed to sustain tropical storm formation, and current readings off BCS are far exceeding that mark.
Historical precedent shows what strong El Niño conditions mean for Baja. During the powerful 1997 El Niño, Gulf of California water temperatures reached 32°C (90°F), and hurricanes tracked much farther north than usual along the peninsula. That season produced Hurricane Pauline, which caused catastrophic flooding on mainland Mexico’s Pacific coast.
What Warmer Water Means for Storm Season
Warmer seas provide more energy for tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. That is the scenario that turns a manageable tropical storm into a major hurricane in a matter of hours. Rapid intensification was a factor in several storms that struck BCS in recent years, including Hurricane Odile in 2014, which caused widespread damage from San José del Cabo to Santa Rosalía.
Mexico’s Navy has projected 18 tropical storms during the 2026 season, with 10 reaching hurricane strength and four becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Those numbers would be slightly above average. Garza is urging continuous monitoring as the season approaches and calling on residents to begin reviewing their contingency plans now.
Preparing for the Season
BCS residents can track incoming storms through the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s Eastern Pacific page. American citizens in the region can also register with the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) for real-time emergency updates. Local civil protection authorities in La Paz and Los Cabos typically publish updated shelter locations and evacuation routes before peak season begins in August.
No tropical storms are currently threatening the region. This is a preparedness warning, not a current storm alert. The analysis was first published by Colectivo Pericú.