U.S. tourist arrivals to Los Cabos fell 49 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to Mauricio Salicrup, the local representative of Mexico’s National Business Tourism Council (CNET). Canadian arrivals dropped 23 percent, and domestic Mexican tourism declined 16 percent. The Los Cabos tourism decline in 2026 is the steepest quarterly drop since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, and the causes this time are structural rather than epidemiological.
Three Pressures Converged on Los Cabos in Q1 2026
Salicrup, who also serves as secretary of the Los Cabos Hotels Association, pointed to three converging forces behind the collapse in visitor numbers. The first is corporate travel restrictions. U.S. companies have increasingly issued blanket advisories prohibiting employee travel to Mexico, driven by perceptions of insecurity across the country. Those advisories do not distinguish between, say, Sinaloa and San José del Cabo. But they reduce bookings all the same.
“There is always a decrease due to companies over there sending notices to employees prohibiting travel to Mexico for safety,” Salicrup said. He noted that Fiturca, the Los Cabos tourism promotion trust, has worked to differentiate the destination from higher-risk areas. Those efforts have not been enough to offset the blanket bans.
The second pressure is airfare. Fuel costs driven partly by ongoing conflict in the Middle East have pushed ticket prices higher on routes from the U.S. to Los Cabos. Post-Spring Break fares from major U.S. hubs to San José del Cabo International Airport (SJD) are among the most expensive of any Mexican beach destination. For a leisure traveler comparing Cabo against domestic U.S. options or Caribbean alternatives, the math has shifted.
The third factor is the 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Matches in Mexico will be played in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey beginning in June. Salicrup warned that major global sporting events historically pull tourists toward host cities and away from resort destinations. “Whenever there is an event of this nature, Los Cabos’ natural tourism is affected to some extent,” he said. The tournament runs from June 11 through July 19, overlapping with what the hotel industry had hoped would be a summer recovery window.
Post-Pandemic Recovery Reversed After Record 2024 Season
The current downturn is striking because it follows several years of strong recovery. Los Cabos bounced back aggressively from the pandemic. By 2023, the destination was attracting roughly 3.6 million air passengers annually through SJD, according to data from the airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP). Hotel occupancy rates in 2024 averaged above 70 percent during peak months, with some luxury corridor properties in the San José del Cabo to Cabo San Lucas strip reporting near-capacity bookings through March.
That trajectory made Los Cabos one of the top-performing Mexican resort destinations in the post-pandemic era. The 49 percent Q1 drop now puts the region well below those benchmarks. A decline of that magnitude typically takes more than one quarter to reverse, particularly when the underlying causes are external to the destination itself.
Other Baja California destinations have felt similar headwinds. Ensenada reported softer cruise ship passenger spending in early 2026, and La Paz has seen fewer fly-in visitors from the U.S. West Coast. But neither destination depends as heavily on the U.S. leisure market as Los Cabos, where American visitors historically account for roughly 70 percent of international arrivals.
Fiturca Budget Shortfall Limits Promotional Response
Compounding the problem is a funding gap at Fiturca, the tourism trust that handles Los Cabos destination marketing. Salicrup said the trust has not received its full budget allocation from the Baja California Sur state Finance Secretariat. Without those funds, Fiturca’s ability to launch aggressive counter-marketing campaigns, the kind that might offset negative perception in the U.S. market, is limited.
“Even though we have not received income from the Finance Secretariat for the trust, we are working so that all these things that go against the destination are not so impactful and we can recover the volume,” Salicrup said.
In the absence of paid advertising muscle, the hotel sector is leaning on visitor experience as its primary tool. The strategy amounts to ensuring that the tourists who do come have a good enough time to recommend the destination to friends and family. Word of mouth is valuable but slow. It is unlikely to produce results before the World Cup window closes in July.
Lower Occupancy Means Deals but Also Reduced Services
For those already living in or visiting Los Cabos, the practical effects of the downturn are visible. Hotel rates along the tourist corridor between San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas have softened. Vacation rental platforms show increased availability and lower nightly rates compared to the same period in 2025. Restaurants and tour operators in the marina area of Cabo San Lucas report lighter foot traffic.
Lower occupancy can mean better deals on accommodations, easier restaurant reservations, and less crowded beaches at spots like Playa El Médano. But it also means reduced revenue for local businesses, which can translate to shorter operating hours, smaller staffs, and fewer options. Some seasonal tour operators may close earlier than usual if summer bookings do not materialize.
The hotel association and Fiturca plan to unveil summer recovery strategies in the coming weeks, with a focus on the July through September period after the World Cup concludes on July 19. Whether those plans gain traction depends heavily on whether Fiturca receives its outstanding state funding. Salicrup’s figures were first reported by El Sudcaliforniano.