Two low-pressure systems forming off Mexico’s Pacific coast are being monitored by forecasters as the 2026 hurricane season officially begins. Neither system currently threatens Baja California, but the season carries an above-average forecast that residents and visitors should take seriously.
The National Water Commission (CONAGUA) and Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) identified the first system, designated Invest 90E, well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Located roughly 2,225 kilometers from the coast, satellite images show it is “beginning to show signs of organization,” according to a June 2 advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters give it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 90% chance within seven days. If it reaches tropical storm strength first, it will be named Amanda.
Second System Closer to Shore
The second system is expected to form off the coasts of Guerrero, Oaxaca, or Chiapas later this week or over the weekend. A tropical depression could develop by early next week as the system moves northwestward. Forecasters put its development probability at 40%, lower than the first system, but its proximity to the Mexican coastline makes it the more immediate concern. If it develops into a named storm, it would be called Boris.
The first system is moving farther out to sea, and SMN officials say it poses no threat to the Mexican mainland. It is unclear whether either system will ultimately affect land.
Above-Average Season Forecast
CONAGUA projects 18 to 21 tropical cyclones in the Pacific this season, well above the historical average. The elevated forecast is driven in large part by the likely emergence of El Niño over the summer months. While El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic, it has the opposite effect in the Pacific, increasing storm activity in the eastern basin.
That pattern is directly relevant to Baja California Sur, which sits in the path of Pacific hurricanes during peak season from August through October. Cabo San Lucas, La Paz, and Todos Santos have all experienced significant storm impacts in recent years, including Tropical Storm Lorena in September 2025.
Residents and visitors in the cape region and along the Sea of Cortez coast should review their hurricane preparedness plans now, before the season intensifies. This story was first reported by Mexico News Daily on June 2.