Los Cabos tourism 2026 is telling two very different stories. International arrivals have dipped just 0.7% through March, a modest wobble tied to perception fears after cartel violence on the mainland. But domestic tourism has fallen for nine consecutive months, dragging overall visitor numbers down 2.5% and exposing a structural vulnerability in Mexico’s most expensive resort destination.
The split matters. International visitors account for roughly two-thirds of Los Cabos tourism in a normal year, domestic travelers for the remaining third. When that third starts shrinking month after month, the math catches up fast.
Domestic Passengers Down Every Month Since July 2025
Data from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), the company that operates Los Cabos International Airport, shows the domestic decline began in July 2025. That month, domestic passenger counts fell by more than 10,000 compared to July 2024. The bleeding continued: down 6,000 in August, 12,000 in September, 17,000 in October, 9,000 in November, 13,000 in December, 13,000 in January 2026, 6,000 in February, and more than 15,000 in March.
Those monthly gaps add up to roughly 100,000 fewer domestic passengers over nine months. The cause is not perception or cartel headlines. It is economic. Mexico’s domestic tourism market flatlined in 2025 as inflation eroded purchasing power. Los Cabos, with an average nightly hotel rate of $429 in 2025 (down from $458 in 2024), remains the country’s most expensive destination. A weeklong stay costs nearly $3,000 before flights, meals, or excursions.
Mexican travelers on tighter budgets have cheaper options. Puerto Vallarta, Cancún, and Oaxaca all offer lower nightly rates and, for many domestic visitors, shorter and cheaper flights. Los Cabos sits at the tip of the Baja California peninsula, far from Mexico City and Guadalajara, the two largest feeder markets for domestic air travel.
International Arrivals Rose in January and February Before March Dip
The international side of the ledger looks more resilient, at least on the surface. GAP data shows international arrivals grew 2.6% in January and 4.2% in February compared to the same months in 2025. Then came the death of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in Jalisco state on Feb. 22. The cartel-related arson attacks that followed, including cars set ablaze in Guadalajara and other mainland cities, prompted U.S. and Canadian companies to issue travel warnings to employees.
International arrivals to Los Cabos fell 7.1% in March, dropping from over 545,000 in March 2025 to 507,000 in March 2026. None of the arson incidents occurred in Los Cabos or anywhere on the Baja California peninsula. But Mauricio Salicrup, Secretary of the Board of Directors of the Los Cabos Hotel Association, said that corporate travel bans and media coverage painted all of Mexico with the same brush.
“Although the Los Cabos Tourism Board promotes and clarifies the situation in Los Cabos compared to what happens in the rest of the country, it still affects us,” Salicrup said. He pointed to a 49% drop in U.S. traveler demand, a 23% drop in Canadian demand, and a 16% dip in domestic demand during the first quarter of 2026. Those figures appear to reflect booking or reservation trends rather than actual airport arrivals, which showed a much smaller international decline.
Semana Santa Hit 90% Occupancy, Airlines Still Adding Routes
The picture is not uniformly grim. Hotel occupancy during Semana Santa in the first week of April reached 90%, and Los Cabos saw record spring break arrivals in March. Airlines continue to invest in the destination. Copa Airlines, Panama’s flag carrier, recently announced new service connecting Los Cabos to its Panama City hub, opening routes to more than 80 destinations across Latin America and the Caribbean.
That kind of airline commitment tends to reflect long-term confidence in a market, not short-term sentiment. Los Cabos International Airport handled more than 8 million passengers in 2024, making it one of Mexico’s busiest resort airports. New route announcements typically require 12 to 18 months of planning, so the Copa decision predates the current softness.
But airlines also respond to data. If domestic load factors continue to weaken, carriers serving the Mexico City and Guadalajara routes may reduce frequency. Volaris and VivaAerobus, the two low-cost carriers that dominate domestic service to Los Cabos, operate on thin margins and adjust capacity quickly.
Average Hotel Rates and Economic Pressure on Mexican Travelers
FITURCA, the Los Cabos Tourism Board, reported that the average daily rate at Los Cabos hotels fell from $458 in 2024 to $429 in 2025. That decline suggests hotels are already adjusting prices to attract bookings. But $429 per night still prices Los Cabos well above competing Mexican beach destinations, where rates of $150 to $250 per night are common.
Mexico’s economy grew just 1.2% in 2025, down from 3.2% in 2023. Inflation, while moderating, kept consumer prices elevated through the year. The peso weakened against the dollar, making international travel more expensive for Mexicans but doing nothing to lower peso-denominated costs at domestic resorts. For a family of four in Mexico City weighing a beach vacation, Los Cabos competes poorly on price with Mazatlán or Huatulco.
The domestic slump also affects the broader Los Cabos economy beyond hotels. Restaurants, tour operators, retail shops, and transportation services in the tourist corridor between Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo depend on steady year-round traffic. Domestic visitors historically filled the shoulder seasons when international arrivals slow.
Los Cabos tourism officials are scheduled to release April passenger data in mid-May, a figure that will show whether the Semana Santa rebound carried into the rest of the month. The original reporting on these figures was published by El Sudcaliforniano.