International air arrivals to Los Cabos fell 14.2% in June compared to the same month last year, capping five straight months of decline in a resort economy that depends on American visitors for the majority of its revenue. The drop is the steepest monthly loss this year for the destination, and the pain is showing on the ground: more than 20 restaurants have closed since last year, sales across the industry are down an estimated 35%, and the Los Cabos Tourism Board has gone silent on its own data.
Los Cabos Tourism Decline Accelerated Every Month Since February
Los Cabos posted small gains in international arrivals in January (2.6%) and February (4.2%). Then the trajectory reversed. March saw a 7.1% decline, April dropped 9.7%, May fell 10.5%, and June hit 14.2%. Each month has been worse than the one before it.
The slide began shortly after the Feb. 22 military operation in Jalisco that killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the CJNG cartel. Retaliatory blockades and arson attacks followed across western Mexico, and images of burning vehicles dominated U.S. cable news for weeks. Los Cabos sits roughly 1,000 miles from Jalisco, but the damage to Mexico’s brand was not regional. It was national.
Rodrigo Esponda, managing director of FITURCA (the Los Cabos Tourism Board), acknowledged the cartel coverage as one factor in a recent interview. But he pointed to two others: rising jet fuel costs that have increased airfare prices, and a July hit-and-run incident during World Cup celebrations in Cabo San Lucas that injured 17 people and resulted in the driver’s death after a crowd beating. That incident drew its own wave of negative U.S. media coverage.
Americans make up roughly 60% of all tourists to Mexico. So when American travel habits shift, resort towns built around U.S. visitors feel it immediately.
Delta, Southwest, and Alaska Airlines Cut Los Cabos Routes in 2026
The decline is not just about perception. Airlines have physically reduced the number of seats available to Los Cabos. In May, Delta canceled service from Seattle to Los Cabos, Cancún, and Puerto Vallarta. Southwest eliminated routes from Baltimore, Chicago, and Indianapolis to Los Cabos. Alaska Airlines dropped its Las Vegas to Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta routes, along with Los Angeles to Cancún.
Southwest cut 11 international flights total this year. These route reductions respond to rising jet fuel costs and softening demand, but they also deepen the problem. Fewer flights mean fewer options for travelers, which means fewer bookings, which gives airlines even less reason to restore capacity. The cycle feeds itself.
A stronger peso has also eroded Mexico’s value proposition for American tourists. Dining, hotels, and excursions cost more in dollar terms than they did two years ago. That price pressure, combined with higher airfare, has made competing destinations more attractive.
More Than 20 Los Cabos Restaurants Closed Since Last Year
The Los Cabos tourism decline is not an abstraction. Walk through downtown Cabo San Lucas or San José del Cabo’s historic Art District and the vacancies are visible. Pancho’s, a longtime landmark restaurant, has closed. So has Lorenzillo’s Lobster House and Alcaravea Gourmet. More than 20 restaurants total have shuttered since last year.
Restaurant sales across Los Cabos are down an estimated 35%. One popular downtown Cabo San Lucas restaurant owner said sales were down 30% this year on top of losses the previous year. Edgar Román, vice president of membership for the local Chamber of Commerce and executive chef at Don Sánchez, described businesses relying on savings to survive the slowdown.
In San José del Cabo, Román said Thursday was the only day with consistent foot traffic, thanks to the weekly Art Walk. But Art Walk ended its season in June. It will not resume until November. From Friday through Wednesday, he said, “businesses experience a considerable decline in customer traffic.” San José del Cabo’s historic district has reported sales declines of up to 40%.
The all-inclusive hotel model has compounded the squeeze. When visitors eat, drink, and spend inside resort walls, less money flows to independent restaurants and shops in town. That structural shift predates this year’s downturn, but it makes the current slump harder to absorb.
FITURCA Stopped Publishing Tourism Data After February
FITURCA had published monthly tourism statistics for seven consecutive years. Then, after February 2026, the reports stopped. The board’s statistics page shows no updates for March, April, May, or June. The silence coincides precisely with the months of steepest decline.
The data blackout is conspicuous. FITURCA is funded by a portion of hotel taxes collected in Los Cabos, and its core function is to market the destination and track its performance. Stopping publication during a downturn can look like crisis management, but it also removes the most accessible public tool for understanding the scope of the problem. Business owners, property investors, and residents are left estimating losses without official confirmation.
Los Cabos is not alone in this pattern. Cancún saw international air arrivals fall 13.1% in June. Puerto Vallarta’s losses were even steeper, at 33.4% in June. Nationwide, international air arrivals dropped 7.5% in both March and May, with an 8.2% decline in April. Mexico’s national statistics agency, INEGI, reported an 11.9% increase in total tourism for March, but that figure was inflated by border crossers and cruise passengers who spend far less per visit. The 27% of visitors who arrived by air contributed 84% of all tourism revenue that month.
High season for Los Cabos typically begins ramping up in October and peaks from December through April. Whether airlines restore cut routes for winter schedules will be a key indicator of recovery prospects. FITURCA has not announced when it will resume publishing monthly statistics. The original reporting is from Mexico News Daily.