Tijuana recorded 30% fewer homicides in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to data released by the state attorney general’s office. The city logged 659 homicides between January and May 2025, down from 942 during the same stretch in 2024. That decline of 283 fewer killings is the largest year-over-year drop the city has posted in recent memory, but the numbers still place Tijuana among Mexico’s most violent municipalities.
Tijuana’s Homicide Count Has Fallen Each Year Since 2018 Peak
The current decline fits a longer trajectory. Tijuana hit a modern peak of roughly 2,518 homicides in 2018, a year that made it the deadliest city in the world on a per-capita basis. That wave was driven largely by a fractured drug trafficking landscape, as cells linked to the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) fought over retail drug markets and trafficking corridors into San Diego County.
Since that peak, the annual count has dropped steadily but remains elevated by historical standards. The city recorded roughly 1,900 homicides in 2022 and about 1,800 in 2023. The 2024 full-year figure came in near 1,700. If the current pace holds through December, 2025 could finish below 1,600, which would be the lowest annual total in roughly seven years.
The FGE, Baja California’s state attorney general’s office, attributes part of the decline to coordinated operations between state and federal security forces. Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar Avila Olmeda has pointed to increased intelligence sharing and targeted arrests of cartel cell leaders. Critics note, however, that Mexico’s official homicide statistics often undercount because they rely on opened investigations, not total deaths. Bodies discovered in clandestine graves, for example, may be cataloged separately or with significant delay.
Monthly Breakdown Shows Uneven Progress Across 2025
The month-by-month data reveals that the decline has not been uniform. January 2025 saw the steepest drop compared to January 2024. February and March showed continued improvement. April posted a slight uptick from March, though it still fell below April 2024 levels. May’s preliminary count returned to the downward trend.
Tijuana’s violence is concentrated geographically. Colonias in the eastern mesa, including Sánchez Taboada, Camino Verde, and sections of the Zona Este, consistently account for a disproportionate share of homicides. These areas are far from the tourist corridor along Avenida Revolución and the Zona Río district, but they sit along routes that tens of thousands of cross-border commuters use daily to reach the San Ysidro and Otay Mesa ports of entry.
The western Playas de Tijuana neighborhood and the Zona Río commercial district, where many U.S. residents and binational workers spend their time, have seen relatively fewer incidents. Still, sporadic violence has reached commercial areas. In March 2025, a shooting near Plaza Río Tijuana mall prompted temporary road closures.
How the Numbers Compare to Other Mexican Cities
Even with a 30% reduction, Tijuana’s pace of roughly 132 homicides per month places it ahead of most Mexican cities. Ciudad Juárez, long considered Tijuana’s closest comparison as a border city with heavy cartel activity, has recorded a sharper decline in recent years and now posts lower monthly totals. León, Guanajuato, and Celaya, two cities hit hard by Jalisco and Santa Rosa de Lima cartel violence, have also seen drops.
Nationally, the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum has cited declining homicide figures across Mexico as evidence that its security strategy is working. The federal government reported a roughly 16% national decline in homicides for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024. Tijuana’s 30% drop outpaces that national average.
For residents on both sides of the border, the practical question is whether the trend holds. Baja California’s state security table, a weekly coordination meeting between military, state police, and municipal forces, has scheduled a mid-year review in July 2025 to assess deployment patterns. The next monthly homicide report from the FGE is expected in early July. The data was first reported by El Imparcial.