Baja California Sur ranked eighth among Mexican states for the per capita cost of violence in 2025, with each resident bearing an economic burden of 47,632 pesos (roughly $2,380 USD). The 2026 Mexico Peace Index, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), calculated the state’s total violence-related economic impact at 42.1 billion pesos ($2.1 billion USD). That figure has grown 43.7 percent since 2015, a decade during which the state also experienced explosive population and tourism growth.
BCS Violence Cost Rose 43.7 Percent as Population Nearly Doubled
The ten-year window the IEP measured, 2015 to 2025, coincides with a period of dramatic transformation in Baja California Sur. The state’s population grew from roughly 763,000 in the 2015 intercensal count to over 1 million by 2025, according to INEGI (Mexico’s national statistics agency). International tourist arrivals to Los Cabos alone exceeded 3.5 million annually by 2024, and the corridor between San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas continued absorbing billions in hotel and residential development.
But the security apparatus did not scale at the same rate. Governor Víctor Castro Cosío acknowledged at a May 20 press conference that 2025 was the most difficult year for public safety during his administration, which began in 2021. Data from SESNSP, the federal public security statistics body, recorded more than 80 homicides tied to high-impact crimes like shootings across the state last year.
The IEP’s cost methodology goes beyond body counts. It factors in material losses, physical injuries, psychological trauma, and the broader economic drag that fear of violence creates. When residents and business owners spend money on private security, reinforced doors, and surveillance cameras instead of hiring employees or expanding operations, those diverted resources count as violence costs. The IEP’s national report found that violence cost Mexico four trillion pesos in 2025, equal to about 11 percent of GDP, though the national figure dropped 11.4 percent from the prior year.
Baja California Sur did not share in that national improvement. The state’s 43.7 percent increase over the decade placed it among the worst performers in a country where overall violence costs were declining.
Loreto and Comondú Drew Federal Military Reinforcements in 2025
The state’s violence epicenter in 2025 was not Los Cabos, which has historically dominated security headlines. SESNSP data identified the municipalities of Loreto and Comondú, both in the northern half of the peninsula, as the primary hotspots. PGJE, the state attorney general’s office, attributed the surge to turf conflicts between organized crime groups operating in the region.
The federal government responded by deploying more than 200 personnel from SEMAR (the Mexican Navy) and SEDENA (the national defense secretariat) to northern Baja California Sur. That deployment was notable for a region that most visitors associate with quiet fishing villages and UNESCO heritage sites. Loreto, a town of roughly 22,000 people, has marketed itself as a tranquil alternative to Los Cabos and has attracted a growing community of foreign retirees and second-home owners over the past decade. Comondú, which includes the agricultural town of Ciudad Constitución, sits along the Transpeninsular Highway corridor that road-trippers use to reach La Paz and Los Cabos from the north.
The military presence in the north has not translated into widespread disruption for travelers on the main highway. But Loreto’s small-town identity, long a selling point for real estate developers targeting North American buyers, now carries a footnote. The PGJE statements about organized crime conflicts echo similar patterns seen in Los Cabos between 2017 and 2019, when cartel-related violence spiked before a sustained military and police operation brought homicide numbers down.
Property Values and Public Services Face Pressure From Security Spending
The IEP report is explicit about secondary economic effects. When governments redirect budgets toward policing and military coordination, spending on roads, water infrastructure, and public health takes the hit. Baja California Sur already faces chronic infrastructure strain: OOMSAPAS, the Los Cabos water utility, has struggled with treatment capacity for years, and the state’s highway network serves a population that has grown far faster than road investment.
Private-sector effects are also measurable. The IEP notes that fear of violence suppresses both investment and consumer spending. Business owners in affected areas spend more on protection and less on growth. Insurance costs rise. Property transactions slow in municipalities flagged for security problems. These dynamics are familiar to anyone who watched Los Cabos real estate pricing dip during the 2017-2018 violence spike before recovering as security improved.
The state government has not announced specific new security investments in response to the IEP report. Castro Cosío’s next scheduled public security review is set for late July 2025. The 2026 Mexico Peace Index is available in full through the Institute for Economics and Peace website. Reporting on this story was originally published by El Sudcaliforniano.