Researchers at Mexico’s National Autonomous University (UNAM) announced on April 1 that Baja California Sur holds the country’s highest potential for renewable energy generation. The finding, based on the state’s combination of solar radiation, wind currents, and geothermal resources, offers what scientists call a practical path to ending the chronic Baja California Sur blackouts that have disrupted life in La Paz and Los Cabos for years.
But the gap between potential and reality is wide. No timeline, no funding commitment, and no specific project has been announced. To understand why that matters, you need to understand why BCS loses power so often in the first place.
BCS Has Operated as an Energy Island Since the Grid Was Built
Baja California Sur is the only state in Mexico that remains completely disconnected from the national electricity grid. The Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, operated by CFE (Mexico’s federal electric utility), links power plants and consumers across the mainland and even into Baja California’s northern peninsula. But the transmission lines stop before reaching BCS.
This means the state generates 100% of its own electricity, almost entirely from aging fossil fuel plants. CFE operates thermal generation facilities in La Paz and Los Cabos that burn fuel oil and diesel. When one unit fails or goes down for maintenance, there is no backup supply from neighboring states. The grid cannot absorb demand spikes, and it cannot borrow power.
The consequences are predictable. Every summer, as temperatures climb above 40°C (104°F) and air conditioning demand surges, CFE’s installed capacity falls short. In the summers of 2023 and 2024, rolling blackouts hit colonias across La Paz, San José del Cabo, and Cabo San Lucas. Some neighborhoods reported outages lasting 8 to 12 hours. State officials blamed aging turbines and insufficient maintenance budgets.
Population growth has compounded the problem. Los Cabos has been one of Mexico’s fastest-growing municipalities for over a decade, with new hotel developments, residential subdivisions, and commercial projects all drawing from the same constrained grid. CFE’s generation capacity has not kept pace.
The Blackout Meter Project Documents Hundreds of Annual Outages
Residents have taken documentation into their own hands. A citizen-led initiative called the “Blackout Meter” (Apagómetro) tracks power outages across BCS during peak summer months. The project, which gained visibility on social media and local news, asks residents to report the time, duration, and location of each outage.
Data from previous summers shows that some colonias in La Paz experienced outages on more than 60 separate days during a single summer season. The tool has become a pressure point for advocacy, forcing state and federal officials to acknowledge the scale of the problem publicly. Governor Víctor Castro’s administration has cited infrastructure deficits repeatedly, though capital investment in new generation capacity has been limited.
For property owners, frequent blackouts carry real costs. Power surges damage refrigerators, air conditioning compressors, and electronics. Homeowners in expat-heavy communities like El Centenario, Todos Santos, and the Cabo corridor often invest $2,000 to $5,000 USD in backup generators or battery systems. Hotels and restaurants face even steeper costs to maintain uninterrupted service during peak tourist season from November through April.
UNAM Identified Solar and Wind Resources but No Construction Plan Exists
The UNAM report highlights that BCS receives some of the highest solar irradiance in North America, with an average of 6 to 7 kilowatt-hours per square meter per day across much of the state. Wind resources are also strong, particularly in the La Ventana corridor east of La Paz and along the Pacific coast near El Pescadero.
Geothermal potential exists as well, though the report treats it as a longer-term prospect. Researchers say a combination of utility-scale solar farms and wind installations could meet current demand and provide a buffer against future growth.
But building that infrastructure requires more than sunshine. BCS would need new transmission lines to connect remote solar and wind sites to population centers. It would need battery storage systems or other technologies to handle intermittent generation. And it would need either significant federal investment from CFE or a regulatory framework that allows private developers to build and sell power in the state.
Mexico’s current energy policy under President Claudia Sheinbaum has prioritized CFE’s role as the dominant electricity provider. Private renewable projects, which expanded under previous administrations, have faced permitting delays and legal uncertainty. Whether BCS can attract the private capital UNAM researchers say is necessary remains an open question.
The next major test comes this summer. CFE has not announced new generation capacity for BCS ahead of the 2026 heat season, and residents in La Paz and Los Cabos can expect demand to again exceed supply when temperatures peak in July and August. The UNAM study was first reported by Mexican energy and academic outlets in early April 2026.