A Reuters poll of 24 foreign exchange specialists projects the Mexican peso will trade at roughly 17.78 to the U.S. dollar one year from now, a modest 1.6% depreciation from the June 30 closing rate of 17.50. The survey, conducted between June 26 and July 1, points to relative stability for a currency that has already gained ground in 2026.
The peso opened the year at 18.00 per dollar on Dec. 31, 2025, according to Banco de México (Banxico). By the end of June, it had strengthened 2.85% to just under 17.50. That puts the currency well within the middle of its long-established 16 to 22 trading range, where analysts expect it to remain through at least mid-2027.
Banxico Holds Rates Steady at 6.50%
The polled analysts warned that any resumption of interest rate cuts by Banxico could weaken the peso by narrowing the gap between Mexican and U.S. rates. Higher Mexican rates have been a key factor attracting foreign capital and supporting the currency.
Banxico held its benchmark rate at 6.50% last week and signaled no near-term cuts. The central bank’s cautious stance has helped anchor the peso during a period of global trade uncertainty. For anyone converting dollars to pesos at casas de cambio in Tijuana, Ensenada, or Los Cabos, the rate has been remarkably consistent in recent months.
Purchasing Power and Overvaluation Concerns
One factor working against dollar holders: a purchasing power analysis from Mexico News Daily’s MND Peso Index suggests the peso is currently overvalued by about 3%. In practical terms, that means dollars buy slightly less in Mexico than historical norms would predict. The index used a USD:MXN rate of 17.32 from May 26, which was slightly lower than the June 30 close.
For expats paying rent, utilities, or everyday expenses in pesos, the overvaluation means costs feel slightly higher relative to historical averages. A move toward 17.78 over the next year would partially correct that gap.
USMCA Uncertainty Remains the Key Risk
The biggest wild card for the peso outlook is the USMCA trade agreement. The trilateral deal between Mexico, the United States, and Canada faces a scheduled review, and any breakdown in negotiations could pressure the peso well beyond the 17.78 median forecast. Mexico sends roughly 80% of its exports to the United States, making the trade relationship the single largest driver of the country’s economic health.
If USMCA talks go smoothly and Banxico maintains its current rate, the consensus view is that the peso will remain in comfortable territory for dollar earners spending in Baja California and Baja California Sur.
This story was first reported by Mexico News Daily, citing a Reuters poll of foreign exchange specialists.