Federal and state civil protection officials are projecting an above-average Pacific hurricane season for 2026, with 18 to 21 tropical systems expected to form and four to five potentially reaching major hurricane status. The forecast places Baja California Sur squarely in the path of heightened storm risk.
The announcement came during the National Civil Protection Meeting held in Veracruz, where authorities from Mexico’s Sinaproc (Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, the national civil protection system) outlined preparation plans for the coming months. Officials cited a 61% probability that El Niño conditions will develop this summer, a climate pattern that tends to fuel stronger and more frequent storms across the Pacific basin.
El Niño Expected to Intensify Storm Activity
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Warmer waters provide more energy for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and strengthen. According to a recent analysis, moderate El Niño conditions have produced above-average Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons 85% of the time since 1990.
Yale Climate Connections reported in early April that a potentially powerful El Niño event appears to be building for the 2026 to 2027 period. European forecast models show sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific running 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal for the August through October peak. If those projections hold, the combination of warm ocean water and reduced wind shear could create ideal conditions for rapid storm intensification along Mexico’s Pacific coast.
Los Cabos Already Inspecting Shelters
In Baja California Sur, authorities are not waiting for the season’s June 1 start date. Los Cabos has already begun inspecting hurricane shelters to ensure they are ready for use. The memory of Hurricane Odile in 2014 and Hurricane Norma in 2023, both of which caused significant damage to the Los Cabos corridor, keeps preparedness at the top of local priorities.
At the national level, Sinaproc is ramping up early warning monitoring systems and interagency coordination. More than 1,200 Sinaproc personnel across the country are receiving specialized training ahead of the season. The effort includes improved communication protocols between federal, state, and municipal agencies.
What Peninsula Residents Should Do Now
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. No tropical cyclones have formed yet in the Eastern or Central Pacific this year, but the pre-season forecast gives residents along the peninsula time to act. Civil protection officials recommend reviewing evacuation routes, checking insurance coverage, and stocking emergency supplies well before the first storms develop.
Residents in La Paz, Los Cabos, Todos Santos, and other coastal communities in Baja California Sur face the greatest exposure on the peninsula. The state’s geography, jutting into the Pacific with the Sea of Cortez on its eastern side, makes it vulnerable to storms approaching from both the south and the west.
The forecast was first reported by BCS Noticias.