Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) is projecting 18 to 21 storm systems in the Pacific Ocean for the 2026 hurricane season, including four to five major Category 3 to 5 hurricanes. The forecast, released on April 22, exceeds the 30-year average of 15 Pacific storm systems per year.
The SMN also predicts nine to 11 hurricanes overall within that total count. On the Atlantic side, which affects Mexico’s Gulf and Caribbean coasts, the agency expects seven to eight tropical storms, three to five Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. The Pacific season officially begins May 15, while the Atlantic season starts June 1.
National Coordination Meeting Draws 1,200 Officials
The federal government convened a National Civil Protection System meeting on April 22, the same day SMN released its forecast. More than 1,200 participants from all 32 Mexican states joined the session, along with representatives from the Defense Ministry (SEDENA), the Navy (SEMAR), and the National Water Commission (CONAGUA).
The meeting focused on prevention strategies and early warning coordination. Officials said an early start to the season is not expected but cannot be ruled out. Storm activity outside the official May 15 to November 30 window remains possible.
What This Means for Baja California
Both Baja California and Baja California Sur sit directly in the Pacific storm track, making the above-average forecast especially relevant for the peninsula. Los Cabos has already completed its hurricane shelter inspection with the season still weeks away.
Last year’s Pacific season included Hurricane Erick, a Category 3 storm that caused extensive damage along the Oaxaca and Guerrero coasts in June. The SMN’s forecast suggests four to five storms of similar or greater intensity could form this year.
The agency is also monitoring a potential El Niño transition during the May to July period. El Niño conditions tend to warm Pacific waters, which can fuel stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones during the August to October peak months.
How to Prepare
Authorities are urging residents to register with local civil protection agencies and follow official weather warnings. Preparing an emergency kit with water, food, medications, important documents, and flashlights is recommended before the season begins.
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing routine Tropical Weather Outlooks for the eastern Pacific on May 15. Residents in La Paz, Los Cabos, Loreto, and other coastal communities should monitor both the NHC and SMN for updates throughout the season.
This story was first reported by Mexico News Daily, citing information from ADN 40, Quadratín Quintana Roo, and Debate.