Gray whale counts in Baja California Sur’s breeding lagoons have fallen sharply over three seasons, with 568 whales recorded in Ojo de Liebre Lagoon and just 90 in San Ignacio Lagoon during the 2025–2026 winter. That total of roughly 658 whales is down from 883 counted across the same lagoons in 2023–2024. Fishing gear entanglements remain a persistent threat: 64 cases were documented this past season, following more than 80 the year before. The decline raises urgent questions for the whale-watching economy that draws tens of thousands of visitors to these remote lagoons each winter.
Three Seasons of Decline in Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve
Benito Bermúdez, regional director for CONANP (Mexico’s national commission for protected natural areas) on the Baja California Peninsula, has conducted weekly whale censuses in the Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve for nearly 30 years. He described the 2024–2025 season as “truly difficult and critical.” That year, only 513 gray whales were counted across both lagoons, and more than 80 were found stranded in a state of starvation.
The 2025–2026 season showed a modest rebound in total numbers but continued high entanglement rates. Survey teams recorded 57 entanglement cases in Ojo de Liebre Lagoon alone and seven more in San Ignacio. Among the documented cases this season, a humpback whale was found dead near San Evaristo, north of La Paz, with fishing net still wrapped around its body. A second whale discovered off Pichilingüe could not be freed by rescue teams.
Francisco Gómez, executive director of the Whale and Marine Sciences Museum in La Paz, said netting that covers a whale’s head can prevent it from opening its mouth to feed. “The whale’s mobility is greatly reduced,” Gómez said. “We believe the death of this whale may have been partly caused by that entanglement.”
Calf births offered one cautious sign of stabilization. CONANP recorded between 107 and 116 calves born during the 2025–2026 season. That represents roughly 20% of visiting whales and marks an improvement over the 69 births logged in 2024–2025, when starvation and entanglement killed calves and juveniles at disproportionate rates.
Arctic Warming and El Niño Threaten BCS Breeding Grounds
The population crash has roots thousands of miles north of Baja California Sur. Gray whales feed on benthic organisms along the Arctic seafloor during summer months. Gómez explained that rising ocean temperatures have reduced permanent winter ice cover in those feeding grounds. That loss of ice suppresses algae growth, which forms the base of the gray whale food chain. With less food available in the Arctic, whales arrive in Baja California Sur’s lagoons thinner and weaker.
The eastern North Pacific gray whale population peaked at roughly 27,000 individuals around 2016, according to estimates from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). By 2023, NOAA surveys placed the population closer to 14,500. That broader decline of more than 40% tracks what Bermúdez and his teams have observed locally in the Vizcaíno lagoons.
El Niño conditions add another layer of risk. Warmer Pacific waters associated with El Niño cycles can push breeding activity farther north, toward northern Baja California and even the coast of Northern California. Bermúdez warned that future El Niño events could reduce the number of whales migrating to the southern lagoons altogether.
Whale Watching Generates Over $10 Million Annually for BCS Coastal Towns
Whale-watching tourism is a lifeline for the small fishing communities around Guerrero Negro, San Ignacio, and López Mateos. The industry generates an estimated $10 million to $15 million per season for Baja California Sur, according to figures previously cited by the state tourism ministry. Local cooperatives operate the pangas (small boats) that carry visitors into the lagoons from January through March. Restaurants, hotels, and guide services in these towns depend almost entirely on the three-month whale season.
Fewer whales in the lagoons translate directly to shorter viewing seasons and lower visitor satisfaction. Tour operators in Guerrero Negro reported noticeably quieter seasons in 2024–2025, when total whale counts dropped below 520. A continued decline could erode the economic case for the long drive or charter flights that bring visitors to these isolated stretches of coast.
Entanglements also present a reputational problem. Images of whales trailing fishing line or net draw international media attention. The National Network for Assistance to Entangled Whales, known as RABEN, responds to cases along the entire peninsula. But field conditions often prevent successful disentanglement. At Pichilingüe this season, a trained team from FONMAR (the Fund for Marine Nature Protection) attempted to cut away gear from an entangled whale and failed.
Gómez noted that entanglement risks extend well beyond BCS waters. Many whales that breed in the lagoons migrate north along routes passing Mazatlán and Puerto Vallarta, where they encounter additional fishing gear.
CONANP plans to conduct a comprehensive survey of coastal lagoons throughout Baja California Sur to estimate current entanglement numbers. Bermúdez said he expects the count to be lower than last season’s total. The survey is scheduled for completion by mid-2026, and results will inform whether current fishing gear regulations require tightening. This article draws on data published by CONANP and statements from the Whale and Marine Sciences Museum in La Paz.