CETYS Universidad on April 14 unveiled a new economic indicator designed specifically for the Tijuana metropolitan area, filling a gap left by national surveys that fail to capture the region’s binational economy. The Consumer Confidence Index for the Tijuana Metropolitan Area (ICC-ZMT) will track sentiment among both consumers and businesses across Tijuana, Tecate, and Playas de Rosarito.
Researchers at the university’s Center for Economic Studies of the Northwest (CIEN) developed the index. The consumer confidence component will be published monthly, while a broader general economic confidence index combining consumer and business sentiment will appear quarterly. The general index weights business opinion at 60% and consumer sentiment at 40%.
First Results Show Declining Confidence
The first-quarter 2026 data already paint a sobering picture. The general confidence index fell from 59.48 in May 2025 to 52.36 in February 2026. Consumer confidence dropped nearly ten points, sliding from a peak of 57.1 in July 2025 to 47.3 in February 2026, crossing into pessimistic territory.
Only 25% of the more than 600 businesses surveyed since the project began in April 2025 said they plan to invest in Tijuana. Researchers cited tariff uncertainty, exchange rate volatility, rising costs for goods and services, and Mexico’s broader economic slowdown as the main drivers of caution.
Why a Local Index Matters
INEGI (Mexico’s national statistics agency) publishes a nationwide consumer confidence survey each month, but that data does not break out metro-level results for Tijuana. The Tijuana metro area operates as a binational economy with thousands of daily border crossings to San Diego and global supply chains in aerospace, medical devices, and electronics. National indicators miss the dual exposure to U.S. and Mexican economic cycles that defines the region.
Alfredo Valadez García, a researcher at CETYS’s School of Business Administration on the Tijuana campus, noted that Tijuana tends to fall faster than other Mexican cities during downturns but also recovers more quickly. The new index is meant to give local decision-makers a real-time gauge of that cycle.
Housing affordability in Tijuana was also flagged as a growing concern dragging on consumer outlook. Researchers warned that weakening sentiment and restrained business investment could weigh on regional economic performance in the coming months.
The ICC-ZMT launch was first reported by Jornada BC, Semanario ZETA, and El Imparcial.