Baja California Sur closed the first half of 2026 with 921,734 residents, a 15.4% jump from the 798,447 people counted in the 2020 census. That gain of more than 123,000 people in roughly six years puts hard numbers behind the traffic, the construction cranes, and the longer waits at hospitals that residents of Los Cabos and La Paz already feel daily.
The figures come from CONAPO, Mexico’s National Population Council. Alberto Torres García, an economist at the Autonomous University of Baja California Sur (UABCS), said the state’s population has practically doubled since 2000, when it stood at roughly 424,000. “The state is experiencing one of the most dynamic economic periods in the country, driven by tourism, investment, and the constant influx of new people who find here a place to live, work, and build a future,” Torres García said.
BCS Population Growth Doubled the State in 25 Years
The growth curve is steep by any national measure. Mexico as a whole grew about 12% between the 2010 and 2020 censuses. Baja California Sur grew 31% over that same period, making it one of the fastest-growing states in the country. Los Cabos municipality alone accounted for the bulk of that expansion, absorbing migrants from mainland states like Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Jalisco who arrived seeking hotel, construction, and service-sector jobs.
La Paz, the state capital, has grown more slowly but still faces pressure. Its metropolitan population crossed roughly 350,000 by 2020. CONAPO’s new data does not break the 921,734 figure down by municipality, but Torres García pointed to Los Cabos and La Paz as the two centers “where the growth is most pronounced.”
A key demographic detail shapes the outlook: the state’s fertility rate sits at 1.8 children per woman, below the 2.1 replacement level. That means continued population growth depends almost entirely on migration, both from other Mexican states and from abroad. So long as tourism investment keeps flowing, new arrivals will keep coming.
Water, Housing, and Hospitals Under Pressure in Los Cabos
For anyone who has lived in Los Cabos for more than a few years, the strain is tangible. OOMSAPAS, the Los Cabos municipal water utility, has struggled to keep pace with residential and hotel development. The utility reported in early 2026 that it serves more than 130,000 residential accounts, yet its treatment and distribution infrastructure was designed for a much smaller population. Dry-season water pressure drops and tanker-truck deliveries remain common in colonias on the outskirts of San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas.
Housing costs have tracked the population curve. Median home prices in the Los Cabos tourist corridor now exceed 4 million pesos (roughly $200,000 USD) for a modest two-bedroom unit, according to real estate listings tracked by local brokers. Rental prices in La Paz, once considered affordable by Baja standards, have risen sharply since 2022 as remote workers and retirees compete with local families for limited inventory.
Healthcare capacity is another pressure point. IMSS, Mexico’s social security health system, operates clinics in both La Paz and San José del Cabo, but wait times for specialist appointments can stretch weeks. The state’s single general hospital in La Paz, Hospital Juan María de Salvatierra, serves as the referral center for the entire peninsula south of Loreto. Torres García warned that “the demand for housing, water, transportation, hospitals, schools, and public services will continue to increase.”
Aging Population Adds a Second Layer of Demand
Dr. Lorella Castorena Davis, also of UABCS, noted that the state is aging at the same time it is growing. Life expectancy in Baja California Sur now stands at 77.2 years. About 70,000 residents are over 60, representing roughly 10% of the population. In 1970, there were 7.5 adults over 60 for every 100 children. By 2020 that ratio had climbed to 38.4, and CONAPO projections for 2026 put it at 40 per 100 children.
That shift creates a dual demand: the state needs schools and entry-level housing for young migrant families, and geriatric care, pensions, and accessible infrastructure for a growing older population. Many foreign retirees in the East Cape and Todos Santos corridors fall into the latter category, relying on a mix of private clinics and occasional IMSS access for routine care.
Torres García called on policymakers to diversify the economy beyond tourism. “Baja California Sur needs to look beyond tourism and strengthen other sectors that generate higher-value jobs and more diverse opportunities,” he said. CONAPO’s demographic data shows that the largest population segment, at 41.4%, falls between ages 30 and 59, the state’s core working-age group. Nearly 48% of all residents are 29 or younger.
The next major data point will come when INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics institute, releases its mid-decade population estimates later in 2026. Those figures should provide the municipal-level breakdown that the current CONAPO data lacks. The original reporting was published by El Sudcaliforniano.