Mexico’s National Civil Protection Coordination has classified all five municipalities in Baja California Sur at very high risk from tropical cyclones, identifying 27 critical flood-prone locations across the state. The BCS hurricane season 2026 forecast calls for up to 21 tropical cyclones forming in the eastern Pacific, and officials estimate nearly 800,000 residents could be affected. That figure represents essentially the entire state population.
National Civil Protection Coordinator Laura Velázquez Alzúa presented the risk assessment on July 10 during the installation of the Interinstitutional Command Post for cyclone season. She stressed that storms do not need to make direct landfall to cause damage. Rainbands from offshore systems can dump enough water to trigger severe flooding, even when a hurricane’s eye stays well out to sea.
Los Cabos and La Paz Account for 22 of 27 Flood-Prone Sites
The 27 critical flooding locations break down by municipality: Los Cabos has 12, La Paz has 10, Comondú has 3, Mulegé has 1, and Loreto has 1. Los Cabos and La Paz together account for more than 80 percent of the identified danger points. Both cities have grown rapidly over the past two decades, and much of that growth has pushed development into arroyos and low-lying areas that channel runoff during heavy rain.
Velázquez Alzúa singled out Comondú as the most vulnerable municipality despite its lower count of individual flood points. The agricultural region sits on a broad plain where water drains from surrounding higher ground. During intense rainfall, runoff from neighboring municipalities pools across Comondú’s farmland and towns. Ciudad Constitución, the municipality’s largest settlement, sits squarely in this drainage zone.
Mulegé, in the state’s north, faces a different threat. Authorities warned residents there to watch for early signs of landslides: newly formed ground cracks, sudden changes in the color of stream or river water, and unusual sounds from hillsides. Mulegé’s steep terrain and history of overflowing streams make it especially prone to slope failures after sustained rainfall.
Hurricane Liza Killed 1,000 People in La Paz in 1976
The warnings carry historical weight. NOAA records show 80 tropical systems have struck or passed near Baja California Sur since 1950, with 23 reaching hurricane strength. The deadliest was Hurricane Liza in October 1976, still considered the worst hydrometeorological disaster in the state’s history.
Liza’s eye passed roughly 100 kilometers east of La Paz, but the rainfall it produced overwhelmed the El Cajoncito dam above the city. The dam failed, sending a wall of water through residential neighborhoods in the early morning hours. About 1,000 people died, 20,000 were displaced, and nearly one-third of the state’s homes were damaged or destroyed.
“History teaches us. It provides information that helps us prepare for tomorrow, and it is very important for the public to know these facts and be prepared,” Velázquez Alzúa said during the briefing.
More recently, Hurricane Odile in September 2014 made landfall near Cabo San Lucas as a Category 3 storm. It caused an estimated $3.8 billion in damage, left the Los Cabos tourism corridor without power and water for weeks, and stranded thousands of tourists at the San José del Cabo airport. Odile reshaped how both authorities and residents in the cape region think about storm preparedness.
169 Shelters Can Hold 33,192 People Across the State
State Civil Protection Undersecretary Héctor Amparano Herrera reported that Baja California Sur has 169 temporary shelters ready, with initial capacity for 33,192 people. That capacity can expand if a major storm threatens. Most shelters are public schools and community centers that convert to emergency housing when authorities issue evacuation orders.
Cleanup crews have already begun preparing drainage infrastructure. In Los Cabos alone, workers have cleared 13 kilometers of waterways and removed 256 tons of debris from arroyo channels. Similar work continues in the other four municipalities. Blocked arroyos were a major factor in the flooding that followed both Odile and Tropical Storm Lidia in 2017, when water backed up behind debris and trash in concrete channels running through San José del Cabo.
If you live or own property near an arroyo in Los Cabos or La Paz, now is the time to identify your nearest shelter and plan an evacuation route. The state’s civil protection office publishes shelter locations through local municipal websites. Keep copies of important documents in a waterproof bag, and maintain at least 72 hours of water, food, and medication on hand during peak season.
Residents in hillside developments, particularly in Mulegé and parts of La Paz, should inspect retaining walls and drainage around their property. Ground cracks, new water seepage, or tilting walls are signs of slope instability that worsen rapidly in heavy rain.
Governor Víctor Castro Cosío called on municipal governments to maintain close coordination with federal authorities throughout the season. The National Meteorological Service forecasts peak cyclone activity between August and October. Officials urged residents to identify their nearest flood-prone zones now rather than waiting for a storm warning. Reporting was originally published by El Universal.