Baja California Sur has lost more than 232,000 head of livestock since 2019, a 37% decline driven by a prolonged drought that state agriculture officials say shows no signs of ending. The collapse affects nearly 7,000 registered producers across the peninsula’s southern half, and it connects directly to the same water crisis reshaping daily life in Los Cabos and La Paz.
Baja Sur Drought Livestock Losses Hit Small Ranchers Hardest
José Alfredo Bermúdez Beltrán, head of SEPADA (the state secretariat overseeing fisheries, aquaculture, and agricultural development), said the state’s total herd has fallen from 626,236 animals in 2019 to 393,788 today. The count includes 226,810 cattle, 104,208 goats, 23,376 equines, 19,933 pigs, and 19,461 sheep. About 25% of lost animals were sold by ranchers trying to cut their losses before conditions worsened. Roughly 5% died outright from lack of food and water.
Most of the state’s 6,967 registered producers, organized across 29 ranchers’ associations, own only 20 to 25 animals each. Losing even five or six head can eliminate a family’s ability to produce milk, cheese, hides, and meat for local sale. Livestock farming is not one of Baja California Sur’s top economic sectors, but it remains the financial backbone of rural communities in the Sierra de la Laguna foothills, the Vizcaíno Desert corridor, and municipalities like Comondú and Mulegé.
Six Years of Below-Average Rainfall Across the Peninsula
Baja California Sur is Mexico’s driest state. Average annual rainfall ranges from 150 to 200 millimeters in most areas, less than one-tenth of what Mexico City receives. But even by those standards, the years since 2019 have been punishing. CONAGUA, Mexico’s national water commission, classified large sections of the state under “extreme” or “exceptional” drought for much of 2021 through 2024. Some ranching areas near Loreto and Ciudad Constitución recorded fewer than 80 millimeters of rain in 2023.
The drought is not just a rural problem. In Los Cabos, OOMSAPAS (the municipal water utility) has imposed rotating service cuts and rationing schedules in recent years. La Paz has faced its own supply disruptions, with some colonias receiving water only two or three days per week during peak dry seasons. The state relies heavily on underground aquifers, and CONAGUA data has shown several of those aquifers in deficit for years, meaning more water is being pumped out than rain replaces.
Hurricane Hilary in August 2023 brought temporary relief, dumping record rainfall on the peninsula. But hydrologists noted at the time that a single storm event does not recharge aquifers or restore rangeland. Grasses and shrubs that cattle and goats depend on need sustained seasonal rain to recover, not a one-time deluge that mostly runs off hardpacked desert soil.
Local Food Prices and Supply Feel the Pressure
The herd reduction is already visible in Baja Sur’s local food economy. Rancho-produced goat cheese, a staple at municipal markets in La Paz and San José del Cabo, has become harder to find and more expensive. Goat numbers alone have dropped from an estimated 160,000 in 2019 to 104,208 today. Beef from local cattle, sold at carnicerías and used in regional dishes like machaca, faces similar pressure. When local ranchers sell off animals, buyers are often large-scale operators in mainland Sonora or Jalisco. The animals leave the state permanently.
For residents who shop at Soriana, Chedraui, or Costco in Los Cabos, the immediate effect is muted because those chains source nationally and internationally. But anyone buying from smaller vendors, at the Mercado Municipal in La Paz, or from roadside sellers in the East Cape and Pacific side, will notice thinner selection and higher prices. A kilogram of local goat cheese that sold for around 180 pesos ($10 USD) two years ago now often exceeds 250 pesos ($14 USD) at market stalls.
The ranchers themselves face a grim calculation. Selling animals now generates short-term cash but destroys the breeding stock needed to rebuild once rains return. Bermúdez Beltrán has acknowledged this cycle but has not announced new emergency subsidies or feed programs beyond existing federal support through SADER, Mexico’s agriculture ministry.
The next meaningful test comes with the hurricane season, which runs from June through November. Bermúdez Beltrán and ranching association leaders have said they need at least two consecutive seasons of above-average rainfall to begin reversing the trend. CONAGUA’s seasonal forecast for summer 2026 projects near-normal precipitation for southern Baja, but that projection carries significant uncertainty. The source material for this report was published by a regional English-language outlet on July 7, 2026.