Baja California’s maquiladora sector shed at least 3,383 jobs in the 12 months ending May 2026, with Tijuana absorbing the largest share of losses. But the decline is not uniform across the state. Mexicali and Tecate posted job gains over the same period, pointing to a geographic reshuffling of manufacturing investment that carries real consequences for businesses, renters, and property owners across the border region.
Tijuana Lost Nearly 4,000 Baja Maquiladora Jobs While Mexicali Grew
The statewide figure of 3,383 lost positions masks sharp city-by-city differences. Tijuana alone lost 3,928 maquiladora jobs. Ensenada lost 2,000. Rosarito dropped 321. Mexicali and Tecate, by contrast, added enough positions to partially offset those losses at the state level.
A separate dataset from INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics agency, paints an even steeper picture for Tijuana. That data shows a year-over-year loss of 7,425 maquiladora workers in April 2026 compared with April 2025. The discrepancy between the two figures likely comes from different measurement windows and methodologies, but both point in the same direction: Tijuana’s factory workforce is contracting.
The human toll surfaced in one telling detail. A 21-year-old job seeker told reporters he had visited five maquiladoras and still could not find work. Tijuana’s industrial parks, which stretch across the Mesa de Otay, El Florido, and La Mesa zones, employ roughly 200,000 workers in a typical year. Even a contraction of a few thousand positions tightens the labor market for young and entry-level workers who depend on factory employment as a first rung.
Aerospace and Medical Devices Face Different Tariff Exposure Than Electronics
Baja California’s maquiladora sector is not monolithic. Tijuana hosts major clusters in electronics assembly, medical device manufacturing, and aerospace components. Each faces different exposure to U.S. tariff policy and global demand shifts.
Medical device manufacturing, concentrated along the Otay Mesa corridor, has historically been more stable because its products (catheters, surgical instruments, diagnostic equipment) face less price sensitivity than consumer electronics. Companies like Medtronic, BD (Becton Dickinson), and DJO Global operate large Tijuana plants. But even this sector has felt pressure from automation and from U.S. regulatory changes affecting import classifications.
Electronics assembly, which includes television sets, circuit boards, and consumer audio equipment, is more exposed to swings in U.S. consumer spending. When American retail demand softens, Tijuana’s electronics plants feel it within weeks. Samsung, Panasonic, and Hisense all run Tijuana facilities, and production volumes at these plants track closely with U.S. big-box retail orders.
Aerospace, a smaller but growing segment in Mexicali and Tecate, may explain part of those cities’ job gains. Companies like Honeywell, Safran, and UTC Aerospace have expanded Mexicali operations over the past three years. Mexicali also benefits from lower industrial electricity rates than Tijuana, a factor that matters for energy-intensive manufacturing.
The result is a regional split. Tijuana’s dependence on consumer-facing industries makes it more vulnerable to U.S. demand slowdowns. Mexicali’s mix of aerospace and industrial components gives it a different risk profile.
Nearshoring Promised Growth, but Results Vary by City
Since 2020, the “nearshoring” narrative has positioned Baja California as a prime beneficiary of supply-chain shifts away from China. The logic was straightforward: factories adjacent to the world’s largest consumer market, with lower labor costs than the U.S. and established logistics infrastructure, should attract investment that previously went to Asia.
Some of that investment has arrived. Mexicali’s aerospace cluster grew. Tecate attracted new auto-parts plants. But Tijuana, the state’s largest manufacturing city, has not seen the broad-based expansion that boosters predicted. Rising industrial rents in the Otay Mesa area, which climbed roughly 15% between 2022 and 2025, have pushed some companies to consider Mexicali or even Saltillo and Monterrey instead.
Energy costs also play a role. CFE, Mexico’s federal electric utility, charges different industrial rates by zone. Tijuana’s rates have been higher than Mexicali’s, partly because Mexicali sits closer to natural gas pipelines from Arizona and has geothermal generation capacity at Cerro Prieto.
Local Businesses and Rental Markets Feel Factory Layoffs Quickly
Maquiladora workers are a major consumer base in Tijuana. A worker earning the manufacturing average of roughly 2,500 pesos (about $140 USD) per week spends that money at local tiendas, taquerías, pharmacies, and bus lines. When thousands of those paychecks disappear, small businesses along corridors like Boulevard Industrial and Avenida de las Torres notice reduced foot traffic.
Rental housing also responds. Colonias near industrial parks, including El Florido, Mariano Matamoros, and Valle de las Palmas, saw rapid rent increases during the nearshoring boom. A contraction in factory jobs could slow or reverse some of that pressure, which may benefit tenants but concerns landlords and property investors.
City tax revenue is another downstream effect. Tijuana’s municipal government collects payroll taxes and business fees from maquiladoras. Fewer jobs mean less revenue for a city already stretched thin on infrastructure and public services.
The next major data release from INEGI is expected in August 2026 and will cover June employment figures, offering a clearer picture of whether the contraction is stabilizing or deepening. Reporting on these figures was originally published by ZETA Tijuana and AFN Tijuana.