Baja California’s export manufacturing sector shrank over the past year, losing 19 factories and nearly 10,000 workers enrolled in Mexico’s IMMEX program between March 2025 and March 2026, according to federal statistics cited by economic analyst Alejandro Gómez Tamez.
The number of IMMEX establishments in the state fell from 934 to 915, a decline of about 2%. IMMEX, short for Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación, is the federal program that allows manufacturers to import raw materials duty-free for assembly and re-export. It forms the backbone of Baja California’s industrial economy in cities like Tijuana, Mexicali, Tecate, and Ensenada.
Workforce Contraction Outpaces Factory Closures
The job losses were steeper than the factory count alone would suggest. Employment at IMMEX establishments dropped from 347,519 to 337,823 over the same 12-month period, a decline of 2.8%, according to Gómez Tamez, who directs the Grupo de Asesores en Economía y Administración Pública (GAEAP). That amounts to 9,696 fewer workers in the sector.
Despite the decline, Baja California still leads the country in the number of IMMEX establishments. The state’s 915 factories represent 17.5% of the national total, according to a January 2026 report citing data from Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI.
Multiple Pressures on the Maquiladora Sector
The contraction comes amid several headwinds for Baja California’s manufacturing base. Mexico’s Ministry of Economy canceled IMMEX registrations for companies accused of simulating manufacturing operations in 2025, part of its “Operation Cleanup” crackdown on firms allegedly using the program to import finished goods duty-free. Some of those cancellations targeted Baja California companies involved in textile imports worth billions of pesos.
Uncertainty around the upcoming review of the USMCA trade agreement, known in Mexico as the T-MEC, adds another layer of risk. Gómez Tamez noted that failure to reach an agreement is the most likely outcome of the review, which would trigger annual reassessments and create ongoing uncertainty for manufacturers that depend on cross-border supply chains.
What It Means for the Border Economy
The maquiladora sector drives demand for housing, commercial real estate, and local services across Baja California’s border cities. A loss of nearly 10,000 manufacturing jobs can ripple through the broader economy, affecting suppliers, restaurants, and retail businesses. For the roughly 98.75% of IMMEX workers employed directly by their companies rather than through subcontractors, factory closures mean direct job losses without a staffing agency buffer.
Baja California’s IMMEX sector had already shown signs of strain in late 2025, when employment fell year over year even as export revenues continued to rise, according to Aram Hodoyán, vice president of the Tijuana Economic Development Council (CDT).
The data was first reported by Semanario Zeta based on analysis from GAEAP.