The number of migrants returned through Baja California ports of entry fell 41% in 2025, a decline steep enough to change the daily texture of Tijuana’s border zone. Data from Mexico’s Unidad de Política Migratoria, the federal office that tracks deportations and returns, recorded 18,155 return events in Baja California from January to November 2025. The same period in 2024 logged 43,547. That Tijuana migration drop of more than 25,000 fewer returns marks one of the sharpest year-over-year shifts in the region’s recent border history.
U.S. Enforcement and Mexican Policy Both Shifted in 2024 and 2025
Several overlapping policy changes help explain the decline. On the U.S. side, the Biden administration’s June 2024 executive order temporarily suspended asylum processing at the southern border when daily encounter numbers exceeded a set threshold. That order, which took effect on June 5, 2024, shut down most asylum claims at ports of entry for weeks at a time. CBP One, the mobile app that migrants used to schedule asylum appointments at ports including San Ysidro and Otay Mesa, was processing roughly 1,450 appointments per day before the Trump administration ended the program on January 20, 2025.
Once CBP One appointments stopped, the pipeline that had been funneling tens of thousands of migrants to Tijuana to wait for their scheduled crossing dates dried up. Tijuana had become one of the primary staging cities for the app-based system. Migrants from Haiti, Venezuela, Central America, and beyond had been waiting weeks or months in the city for their turn. With that mechanism gone, fewer people had a reason to travel north to Baja California’s border zone.
On the Mexican side, the government under President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, 2024, continued and expanded a strategy of intercepting migrant caravans and northbound groups well before they reached the border. Mexico’s INM (the national immigration authority) increased highway checkpoints and bus inspections on major transit routes through southern and central Mexico. BBVA Research, the economic analysis arm of the Spanish banking group, found that nationwide deportations of Mexican migrants from the U.S. also declined 22.3% in 2025 compared to 2024.
Tijuana Shelters Still Operate but Report Lower Occupancy
Tijuana’s shelter network expanded dramatically during the migration surges of 2018 through 2024. At peak periods, the city hosted more than 30 active shelters, and encampments near the Chaparral pedestrian crossing and along the Tijuana River canal drew international media attention. Encampment clearances in 2023 and early 2024 pushed many migrants into shelters or out of the city entirely.
Shelter operators reported lower occupancy in late 2025. Fewer Central American and Caribbean migrants were arriving, and the Haitian community that had built a semi-permanent presence in neighborhoods like Zona Norte and Colonia Libertad was shrinking as some residents obtained Mexican humanitarian visas and moved to other parts of the country. The shelters have not closed. Organizations like Espacio Migrante and the Padre Chava breakfast program continue to serve meals and provide legal aid. But the volume has changed.
The Zona Norte neighborhood near the San Ysidro port of entry, long the most visible flashpoint, has fewer street-level signs of the migration crisis that defined it from 2018 onward. Street vendors who catered to waiting migrants have thinned out. The long queues at the pedestrian crossing, while still present, are shorter on most mornings.
Border Crossing Wait Times and Traffic Patterns Reflect the Shift
San Ysidro, the busiest land port of entry in the Western Hemisphere, processed roughly 70,000 northbound vehicle and pedestrian crossings daily during peak periods. Wait times at San Ysidro and at Otay Mesa, Tijuana’s second major crossing, are influenced by staffing levels, lane closures, and security screening protocols as much as by migrant volume. But CBP data through late 2025 showed fewer secondary inspections tied to asylum claims at both crossings.
The Cross Border Xpress (CBX), the privately operated pedestrian bridge connecting Tijuana’s airport to a terminal on the U.S. side in Otay Mesa, has continued to grow as an alternative entry point. CBX processed more than 4 million passengers in 2024. Its growth reflects a broader shift: more travelers choosing air-to-ground crossings that bypass the traditional port-of-entry lines entirely. That option remains available only to ticketed airline passengers, but it has become the default route for many regular cross-border commuters.
If you cross regularly at San Ysidro or Otay Mesa, the reduced migration pressure has not eliminated long wait times. Staffing shortages at U.S. Customs and Border Protection and periodic lane closures for construction still cause backups exceeding two hours on weekends. The difference is that the humanitarian processing component, which once added unpredictable delays, has become a smaller factor in the equation.
The next major variable to watch is the Trump administration’s planned expansion of expedited removal proceedings, which could reverse the deportation decline if implemented at scale through Baja California ports. The data cited here was originally reported by El Sol de Tijuana and El Imparcial using figures from Mexico’s Unidad de Política Migratoria, with additional analysis from BBVA Research.