Tijuana Mayor Montserrat Caballero will leave office in October with a 72% approval rating, according to a new survey by Massive Caller, making her one of the highest-rated outgoing municipal leaders in Baja California. The poll of 500 residents, conducted between June 4 and June 7, found that a majority of Tijuana residents view her administration favorably across multiple categories, from public safety to infrastructure.
Caballero Took Office During a Period of Record Homicides
Caballero became Tijuana’s first female mayor when she took office on October 1, 2021. She inherited a city in crisis. Tijuana had recorded over 2,000 homicides in 2019 alone, making it one of the most dangerous cities in the world by per-capita murder rates. Drug cartel violence, extortion of small businesses, and a strained relationship between local and federal security forces defined the landscape she stepped into.
Her administration leaned heavily on coordination with state and federal law enforcement. The Massive Caller survey found that 66.2% of respondents approve of her handling of public safety. That number is notable given Tijuana’s persistent security challenges. The city still regularly appears on lists of Mexico’s most violent municipalities, though homicide totals have trended downward from their 2019 peak.
Caballero also navigated a complicated political environment. She ran under the Morena party banner, aligning her with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s ruling coalition. That alliance gave her administration access to federal programs but also tied her politically to national debates over militarized policing and the National Guard’s expanding role in Baja California.
Survey Shows Strong Marks on Infrastructure, Weaker on Transparency
The Massive Caller poll broke approval into specific categories. Street and road maintenance earned the highest marks at 71.6% approval. Public lighting followed at 67.6%. Public safety approval came in at 66.2%, and water and drainage services scored 64.6%.
The lowest-rated category was transparency in government spending, where just 55% of respondents expressed approval. While still a majority, the gap between infrastructure satisfaction and fiscal transparency suggests residents felt more confident about visible improvements than about how money was being managed behind the scenes.
The survey’s methodology involved 500 telephone interviews with residents aged 18 and older across Tijuana. Massive Caller, which conducts polling across Mexico, reported a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The sample size is modest for a city of roughly 1.9 million people, so the numbers should be read as directional rather than definitive.
Still, a 72% general approval rating places Caballero well above many outgoing Mexican mayors. Municipal leaders in Mexico’s border cities often face intense public criticism over insecurity, potholes, water shortages, and corruption. Finishing a term with majority approval in Tijuana is not common.
What the Numbers Mean for Tijuana’s October Transition
Tijuana’s next mayor will take office on October 1, 2025. Municipal elections in Baja California follow a three-year cycle, and Caballero is term-limited under Mexican law, which prohibits consecutive reelection for mayors. The race to replace her will determine whether her administration’s priorities, particularly the emphasis on federal security coordination and road infrastructure, continue or shift.
For anyone living in Tijuana or crossing the border regularly, the transition matters in practical ways. Road projects currently underway may stall during the handover period. Security strategies could change if the incoming mayor recalibrates the relationship with state or federal police. Water service, managed by CESPT (Tijuana’s municipal water utility), remains a persistent concern. The 64.6% approval on water and drainage reflects ongoing frustration with outages and infrastructure that struggles to keep pace with the city’s rapid growth.
The survey also found that 52.4% of respondents believe Tijuana is headed in the right direction. That “right track” number, while barely a majority, stands out for a border city that has weathered pandemic-era economic disruption, migration surges, and continued cartel activity over the past three years.
Caballero’s remaining months in office will likely focus on completing legacy projects and managing the transition. Her successor will inherit a city where public expectations have been set, at least according to this poll, at a relatively high bar. The Massive Caller survey was first reported by El Imparcial on June 9, 2025.